From our local weather forecaster:
More snow headed this way; arctic blast to hit New Year's Eve: "Tuesday's brief respite from the clouds and snow, dominate meteorological features of December 2009, is coming to an end. Area residents reveled in Chicago's sunniest weather of the past 13 days Tuesday. The day hosted 88 percent of its possible sunshine and managed a 24-degree high. But the thickening, wintry-gray cloud deck under development as Wednesday gets underway is to begin producing snow by late morning or early afternoon--snow which is likely to continue in periods through Wednesday night. Computer snowfall estimates for the Chicago come in at half an inch to an inch and a half. But another technique employed by forecasters to estimate possible snowfall is less conservative, generating amounts by daybreak Thursday (New Year's Day) closer to 4 to 5 inches.
This method---the B.J. Cook Technique---looks at the degree to which temperatures warm high in atmosphere at 39,000 ft. and relates that warming to snowfall. Studies have found that peak snowfall at ground level often ends up equaling half the temperature increase more than 7 miles above the ground. That rising temperatures aloft can be related to snowfall intensity makes sense when you think about. Disturbances in the atmosphere produce precipitation by encouraging moist air to rise and saturate, producing rain or snow and clouds. Rising air transports warmer temperatures aloft. Therefore, the AMOUNT of warming aloft offer a means of gauging just how vigorously air is rising which, in turn affect the intensity with which precipitation falls. The stronger the updrafts, the greater the amount of moisture which rushes into an area and, therefore, the higher the amount of that moisture which precipitates out as rain or snow.
A 'wall' of frigid arctic air hits toward News years Eve (Thursday evening)
A blast of frigid arctic air is the next weather challenge facing Chicagoans this week. While high temperatures are likely to hover around 30-degrees Thursday afternoon, the leading edge of bitterly cold air is to ride gusty northwest winds into the area toward New Year's Eve. From that point forward, temperatures are expected to dive. Single digits are likely Friday (New Year's Day) with the day's temperature recovery only resulting in highs in the teens. Nighttime lows in single digits or sub-zero are predicted Friday and Saturday nights. Days of northwest winds across Lake Michigan are likely to ignite waves of lake snow which may---between Friday and night and next Tuesday---produce heavy accumulations in excess of a foot in a number of locations.
The chill is Florida-bound
The frigid outbreak is to plunge into the Southeast and out over the Gulf of Mexico and into the Caribbean. Freezing nighttime readings are likely to reach sections of north and central Florida this weekend. The cold's intensity is likely to wane once in contact with the warm ocean waters to the south of Florida--but it is likely to shift winds as far south as Cuba, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and even Jamaica to the northeast over the weekend and into next week.
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